Nigeria and the Three T’s: Trump, Tariffs, and Tinubunomics

 By Abdulganiyu Omotosho Issa 

How Trump’s “America First” Agenda Could Affect Nigeria’s Economy

“USA! USA! USA!” The crowd roared, their voices shaking the arena. It was 2016, and Donald Trump had just promised to put America first. His supporters, draped in red, white, and blue, believed they were ushering in a new era of economic resurgence. Although, he unceremoniously lost in 2020, fast forward to 2025, and the chants are back. Trump is now the 47th President of the United States, and his “America First” agenda is stronger than ever. Against all odds, his message resonated once again: America First, economic nationalism, and a hardline stance on global trade. But beneath the chants and the spectacle lies a strategy that could have far-reaching implications beyond U.S. borders — especially for economies like Nigeria.

Trump’s “America First” agenda signals a more isolated U.S. economy, one that prioritizes domestic industries at the expense of international trade partnerships.

The Tariff Narrative: A Double-Edged Sword

As Trump returns to the White House, his hallmark policies — protectionist tariffs, deregulation, and a hawkish stance on China — are back in full force. His “America First” agenda signals a more isolated U.S. economy, one that prioritizes domestic industries at the expense of international trade partnerships. While these policies might invigorate certain American industries, they pose complex challenges and opportunities for emerging economies like Nigeria.

Trump’s tariff policies, designed to protect American manufacturing, inevitably send shockwaves through global markets. His renewed trade war with China and stringent import duties could disrupt supply chains, driving up costs for Nigerian businesses reliant on Chinese goods. Nigeria, which imported over $16 billion worth of goods from China in 2022, could face significant cost increases, leading to inflationary pressures domestically.

Trump is Pro further oil exploration and he reiteratated that with his “We will drill, baby drill” comments at the Inaugural.

Trump has never hidden his agenda about imposing Tarrifs on China to protect the American Economy

At the same time, Nigeria, as a major oil producer, could see benefits from a potential spike in global oil prices if trade tensions escalate and energy markets tighten. However, Trump’s protectionist policies could stifle Nigeria’s ambitions to diversify its economy beyond oil. Trump has in the past few days made some economic calls and had just asked OPEC to bring down the price of Oil.

Trump is Pro further oil exploration and he reiteratated that with his “We will drill, baby drill” comments at the Inaugural. This presents a significant opportunity for Nigeria to also see to further exploration of oil and gas to be able to compete globally. The country already has what is arguably the largest oil refinery in the world. There is also the argument for renewables and the need to consider further green initiatives, but Trump taking the US out of the Paris deal and WHO has further pushed any further Green talk to the back of global issues.

However, with increased tariffs and stricter trade barriers, Nigerian exporters seeking to penetrate the U.S. market might face higher costs and reduced competitiveness. The Nigerian Naira, which has already depreciated significantly in 2023, currently trading at over 1,500 Naira to a dollar, could experience further volatility if investor confidence diminishes.

Tinubunomics: A Strategy for Economic Resilience

At home, Nigeria’s economic policy under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu — dubbed “Tinubunomics” — focuses on fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and attracting foreign investment. Tinubu’s administration aims to revamp the nation’s infrastructure, boost local production, and transition Nigeria from an import-dependent to a self-sufficient economy. Tinubu ended fuel subsidies, which made fuel prices go up. Petrol prices jumped from ₦189 per liter to over ₦600 in some areas and now sells just a little short of ₦1000. The government says it will save ₦400 billion monthly for infrastructure and social programmes.

The President also unified Nigeria’s exchange rates to attract foreign investors and stabilize the naira. But the naira has been struggling, falling from ₦460/1inMay2023toover₦1,500/1inMay2023toover₦1,500/1 in 2024. This has made imports more expensive and pushed inflation to a 29-year high of 28.9% in 2024.

However, the government is working to collect taxes more efficiently and broaden the tax base. Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is currently 10.8%, one of the lowest in the world. Tinubu aims to increase this to fund development.

Nigeria’s current inflation rate stands at over 30% with unemployment at about 35%, posing a major challenge for policymakers attempting to stabilize the economy while fostering growth. But with Trump’s policies in play, Tinubu faces more challenges which will require economic grit to steer.

If Nigeria is to navigate the complexities of Trump’s economic nationalism, it must continue to focus on not only improving its oil outputs, but also look towards massive investment in sectors such as agriculture, technology, and manufacturing to create a resilient economic base.

The agricultural sector, which contributes about 25% to Nigeria’s GDP, offers a viable avenue for growth if properly harnessed. Strengthening regional trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has a market potential of over $3 trillion, presents an opportunity for Nigeria to shift its focus inward, leveraging intra-African trade to cushion the impact of U.S. tariffs. Engaging diplomatically with the U.S. to secure trade exemptions and favorable terms under programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) will be crucial. Additionally, Nigeria’s vast diaspora in the U.S., which remitted over $20 billion in 2022, can serve as a critical bridge, driving investments and fostering economic partnerships amid the shifting geopolitical landscape.

Similarly, Nigeria’s culture, like Nollywood and Afrobeats, is famous worldwide. This could be Nigeria’s soft power which the country can use to build stronger ties with the U.S. and other nations.

Way Forward

While Trump’s policies may present short-term hurdles, they also offer opportunities for Nigeria to redefine its economic priorities and develop self-sustaining growth models. Policymakers must remain proactive, leveraging global uncertainties to push for structural reforms that will make Nigeria’s economy more competitive and resilient in the long run.

Omotosho is a brand strategist and PR professional with a keen interest in global politics and strategic communication. He recently completed a Master’s degree in Law from the University of Law, Birmingham.